The wrong unit of analysis
Teams rank the biggest pharma markets instead of asking whether one asset can be registered, paid for and supplied in one country.
A module of AgileBio Tech
Which asset, which country, which deal, and what it’s really worth.
AI business intelligence for global biopharma commercialisation.
Platform in development · Built by Agile Dynamics
01The problem
Proven therapies stay stranded in their home markets.
Biotech portfolios are full of approved and late-stage assets that never leave home. The problem isn't the science. Owners can't see which country, indication and deal structure will turn an asset into cash they can actually collect.
Evidence in silos
Epidemiology, approval routes, tender prices, patents and sanctions sit in different systems and different teams.
Sales mistaken for value
Under a licence the owner earns a royalty, not the sales. Most cases overstate what the owner will actually receive.
02The insight
Market size is not market value.
Size the market from patients, not from a therapy-area report. Then ask what reaches the owner under the deal on the table.
Incidence2,500incident patients a year
Treated at peak104after stage, eligibility and coverage
Licensee sales$2.1min the peak year
Owner receives$0.25ma 12% royalty, what actually reaches the owner
Patients narrow 24-fold from incidence to treatment
IllustrativeLicensee net sales
$2.10m
Owner royalty (12%)
$0.25m
Hypothetical therapeutic cancer vaccine, licensed in a hypothetical country of 10 million people at USD 20,000 net per course. Invented inputs; no real asset or market.
Show the numbers as a table
| Stage | Patients | Builds |
|---|
03How it works
Every opportunity passes through three layers of truth.
OpportunityIQ connects epidemiology, approvals, tender prices, patents, competitors and banking rules in one model, and refuses to let one layer masquerade as another.
One opportunity is one asset, for one indication, in one country, through one deal structure.
LAYER 1End market
Sized bottom-up from patients: incidence, stage, eligibility, coverage and uptake.
TAM · SAM · SOM by year
LAYER 2Attributable revenue
What actually reaches the owner: royalties, transfer prices, milestones, JV distributions.
Owner receipts by deal
LAYER 3Risk-adjusted value
A scenario tree with failure paths and their costs, and probabilities drawn from evidence, branch by branch.
rNPV · IRR · peak fundingHow OpportunityIQ turns scattered evidence into ranked decisions
Hover over or tap any box to trace its path.
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04The method
Capital follows evidence: eight plays, four gates.
Five mandatory screens test legal eligibility, banking feasibility, the regulatory route, supply and cash realisation before any sizing begins. Funding is released only at gates.
Screen
about 1 weekSize and value
6–10 weeksValidate
1–2 weeksHover over or tab to any step or gate for details.
Tap a step to see what happens there.
An opportunity that fails a legal or banking screen stops at Gate 1, however attractive its patient numbers.
05What you get
A ranked, graded, gated pipeline, in weeks.
Agents gather, engines calculate, experts decide. Every value an agent proposes carries a citation, and a named expert approves it before any model uses it.
| # | Opportunity | Deal | Owner rNPV | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asset A · therapeutic vaccineCountry 1 | Licensing | $6.1m | AB | Gate 3 |
| 2 | Asset B · biosimilarCountry 2 | Tech transfer | $5.4m | BB | Gate 2 |
| 3 | Asset C · diagnostic kitCountry 3 | Distribution | $3.9m | AC | Gate 2 |
| 4 | Asset A · therapeutic vaccineCountry 4 · largest market | Co-development | $3.1m | CD | Evidence task |
| 5 | Asset E · cardiovascularCountry 5 | Licensing | $0.6m | DD | Research Q |
Mock-up. Assets, countries and values are invented.
Row 4 is the largest market in the list and ranks fourth. Its case rests on proxy and assumption-grade inputs, so the platform names the evidence task that would resolve it instead of recommending it.
AVerified: usable for decisions
BCredible estimate: base case, flagged in sensitivity
CProxy: range only
DAssumption: scenario only, evidence task required
06Who it serves
One shared engine for every side of the deal.
Portfolio ownersSee which assets, markets and deal structures are worth pursuing, and which to stop funding.
InvestorsA standard, auditable business case for every opportunity, comparable side by side.
Partners and buyersClear evidence of where an asset fits their market, channel and capability.
07Roadmap
Pilot in 6 months, two-sided in 12, sovereign-ready in 18.
OpportunityIQ is the intelligence layer of the AgileBio Tech fund: it screens deal flow, produces standard business cases for co-investors and keeps an evidence trail for every milestone gate.
Months 0–3
Foundations
Cloud, identity, data pipelines and the assumption register.
Gate: engines pass test caseMonths 3–6
Pilot MVP
Owner workspace, sizing, receipts, rNPV, screens and gate engine.
Gate: 3 pilot opportunities at Gate 2Months 6–12
Two-sided
Buyer and investor workspaces, data rooms and the AgileBio Tech fund link.
Gate: first IC pack acceptedMonths 12–18
Scale, sovereign
Government workspace, sovereign deployment, ISO 27001 and SOC 2.
Gate: audits passedStart with three assets. A 12-week pilot takes three opportunities with different pathways from screening to first committee decisions, then scales across a 10–15 asset portfolio.
See the fund ↗
This asset, in this country, through this deal, is worth doing now.
That is the confidence OpportunityIQ is built to give owners of proven but under-commercialised science. We're looking for two design partners to take their first 15 assets through the platform.